Wildfires and Climate Change in the Ukrainian Polissia During 2001–2023

Svitlana Boychenko (), Tetyana Kuchma, Victor Karamushka, Nadiia Maidanovych and Olena Kozak
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Svitlana Boychenko: Department of Environmental Studies, Faculty of Natural Sciences, National University of Kyiv–Mohyla Academy, 04655 Kyiv, Ukraine
Tetyana Kuchma: Department of Environmental Studies, Faculty of Natural Sciences, National University of Kyiv–Mohyla Academy, 04655 Kyiv, Ukraine
Victor Karamushka: Department of Environmental Studies, Faculty of Natural Sciences, National University of Kyiv–Mohyla Academy, 04655 Kyiv, Ukraine
Nadiia Maidanovych: Leonid Pogorilyy Ukrainian Research Institute for Forecasting and Testing of Machinery and Technologies for Agricultural Production, 08654 Doslidnytske, Ukraine
Olena Kozak: Department of Environmental Studies, Faculty of Natural Sciences, National University of Kyiv–Mohyla Academy, 04655 Kyiv, Ukraine

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 5, 1-30

Abstract: Climate change, accompanied by anomalously high temperatures and a decrease in precipitation during the warm season, can have serious consequences for the ecosystems and sustainability of the Ukrainian Polissia. In particular, there are increased risks of forest and peat fires, as well as an overall deterioration of the region’s ecological condition. Between 1990 and 2021, the Ukrainian Polissia region recorded an average temperature increase of 0.60 °C per decade, along with a 3–5% decrease in annual precipitation. An analysis of the spatial distribution of wildfire incident density based on satellite data (FIRMS) in the regions of the Ukrainian Polissia from 2001 to 2023 highlighted several periods of sharp increases in fires: 2002, 2007–2009, 2014–2015, and 2019–2020. The Spring Fire Season and the Late Summer–Autumn Fire Season coincide with periods of reduced precipitation, which in some years reached 40–60% below the climatic norm. Although the climatic conditions of spring 2022 were not as warm and dry as those in 2020, significant parts of Kyiv Polissia and Chernihiv Polissia suffered from large-scale wildfires due to ongoing military actions. The spatial distribution of fire frequency in 2020 and 2022 highlights different contributing factors: in 2020, weather anomalies were the primary cause, while in 2022, armed hostilities played a key role. Military conflicts not only increase the risk of fires but also complicate firefighting efforts, making the region even more vulnerable to large-scale forest fires, and thereby threatening its sustainability. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrated fire management strategies that take into account climate change, land-use policies, and geopolitical factors to mitigate the escalating wildfire threat in the region and ensure long-term sustainability.

Keywords: wildfire; climate change; Ukrainian Polissia; weather anomalies; war; sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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