Hydrological Assessment Under Climatic and Socioeconomic Scenarios Using Remote Sensing, QGIS, and Climate Models: A Case Study of the Tuban Delta, Yemen

Khaldoon A. Mourad (), Joris Oele, Waleed Yacoob, Julie Greenwalt, Mohammed Zain, Abdulraqeb Al-Okaishi, Alaa Aulaiah and Ronny Berndtsson ()
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Khaldoon A. Mourad: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT), Aden, Yemen
Joris Oele: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT), Aden, Yemen
Waleed Yacoob: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT), Aden, Yemen
Julie Greenwalt: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT), Aden, Yemen
Mohammed Zain: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT), Aden, Yemen
Abdulraqeb Al-Okaishi: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT), Aden, Yemen
Alaa Aulaiah: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT), Aden, Yemen
Ronny Berndtsson: Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University, 22100 Lund, Sweden

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 5, 1-19

Abstract: (1) Background: Water scarcity is a pressing global issue, impacting food security, health, and economic stability in many regions. In Yemen, the challenges related to water resources are particularly acute, exacerbated by climate change, overuse, and a lack of sustainable management strategies. (2) Objective: this paper assesses water resources and demands under two shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP3 and SSP5. (3) Methods: remote sensing, the MRI-ESM2-0 climate model, and QGIS 3.28 are used for spatial analysis and climate projections. (4) Results: The 2022 estimation of water supplies comprising renewable surface water, renewable groundwater, and non-conventional water resources are estimated at 208 million m 3 (MCM). In contrast, water demands are estimated at 244 MCM, resulting in a total water deficit of 36 MCM. For future projections, two scenarios are assessed: business as usual and the improved scenario considering two climate change scenarios, SSP3 and SSP5. The improved scenario considers using drip irrigation, decreasing population growth rates, and constructing seawater desalination plant. Findings indicate that maintaining land and irrigation practices will exacerbate groundwater depletion and threaten water security, while the improved scenario effectively narrows the supply–demand gap. (5) Conclusions: All scenarios predict severe water shortages in the Lower Region, underscoring the urgent need for additional water resources, including a proposed 50 MCM seawater desalination plant. This study provides critical insights into sustainable water management strategies for Yemen, highlighting the necessity for immediate action.

Keywords: Tuban Delta; shared socioeconomic pathways; QGIS; MRI-ESM2-0 climate model; desalination plant (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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