Impacts of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Vegetation Dynamics Considering Time Lag and Accumulation Effects: A Case Study in the Three Rivers Source Region, China

Yunfei Ma, Xiaobo He, Donghui Shangguan (), Da Li, Shuang Dai, Beibei He and Qin Yang
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Yunfei Ma: Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Xiaobo He: Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Donghui Shangguan: Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Da Li: Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Shuang Dai: School of Business, Jilin Business and Technology College, Changchun 130062, China
Beibei He: Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Qin Yang: Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-22

Abstract: Examining the effects of climate change (CC) and anthropogenic activities (AAs) on vegetation dynamics is essential for ecosystem management. However, the time lag and accumulation effects of climate change on plant growth are often overlooked, resulting in an underestimation of CC impacts. Combined with the kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI), climate data during the growing season from 2000 to 2023 in the Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR) and trend and correlation analyses were employed to assess kNDVI dynamics. Furthermore, time lag and accumulation effect analyses and an upgraded residual analysis were applied to explore how climatic and human drivers jointly influence vegetation. The results show the following: (1) The kNDVI showed a fluctuating but overall increasing trend, indicating an overall improvement in vegetation growth. Although future vegetation is likely to continue improving, certain areas—such as the east of the western Yangtze River basin, south of the Yellow River basin, and parts of the Lancang River basin—will remain at risk of deterioration. (2) Overall, both precipitation and temperature were positively correlated with the kNDVI, with temperature acting as the dominant factor affecting plant growth. The predominant temporal effects of precipitation on the kNDVI were a 0-month lag and a 1-month accumulation, while temperature primarily showed a 2–3-month lag and a 0–1-month accumulation. The main category of the overall climatic temporal effects were precipitation accumulation and temperature time lag effects (PA_TL), which accounted for 70.93% of the TRSR. (3) Together, CC and AA drove vegetation dynamics, with contributions of 35.73% and 64.27%, respectively, indicating that AA played a dominant role. Furthermore, incorporating combined time lag and accumulation effects enhanced the explanatory ability of climatic factors for vegetation growth.

Keywords: kNDVI; climatic change; anthropogenic activity; three rivers headwater region; time lag effect; time accumulation effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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