Spatial and Chronological Assessment of Variations in Carbon Stocks in Land-Based Ecosystems in Shandong Province and Prospective Predictions (1990 to 2040)

Xiaolong Xu, Kun Li, Chuanrong Li (), Fang Han, Junxin Zhao and Youheng Li
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Xiaolong Xu: School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China
Kun Li: Taishan National Forest Ecosystem Research Station for Long-Term Observation, Taian 271018, China
Chuanrong Li: Taishan National Forest Ecosystem Research Station for Long-Term Observation, Taian 271018, China
Fang Han: School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China
Junxin Zhao: School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China
Youheng Li: School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-20

Abstract: Analyses of regional carbon stock dynamics, particularly of spatial and temporal dynamics and their relationship with land use transitions, play a key role in the management of terrestrial ecosystem functions and the optimization of land resource allocation. This study focuses on Shandong Province, an important ecological security barrier along the eastern coast of China, to explore carbon stock changes and how land use modifications contributed to the chrono-spatial distribution of carbon stocks from 1990 to 2020, with additional forecasts up to 2040. Based on Natural Variation Conditions, Ecological Variation Conditions, and the City’s Variation Conditions, the results indicate a downward trend in carbon stocks across Shandong Province, from 2661.87 × 10 6 t in 1990 to 2380.02 × 10 6 t in 2020. Carbon stocks exhibit a highly uneven spatial distribution, with concentrations being notably higher in the central and eastern regions. Cities are classified based on their carbon stock level: high carbon stock cities (Linyi, Weifang, Yantai), large carbon stock cities (Jinan, Jining, Qingdao, Dezhou, Binzhou, Liaocheng, Taian, Zibo, Dongying), and cities with general carbon stock levels (Weihai, Rizhao, Zaozhuang). The major driver of carbon stock decline is the conversion of ecological lands into urban areas, with cultivated lands and forests being the primary carbon storage contributors. Projections suggest that under the City’s Variation Conditions, carbon stocks will decrease from 2380.02 × 10 6 t in 2020 to 1654.16 × 10 6 t by 2040, while Carbon stocks will rise from 2380.02 × 10 6 t to 2430.56 × 10 6 t under the Ecological Variation Conditions. A significant disparity in carbon sink potential is found across cities, which are divided into high carbon sink potential cities (Yantai, Dezhou, Weifang, Qingdao, Jinan), large carbon sink potential cities (Binzhou, Weihai, Zibo, Liaocheng, Dongying, Linyi, Taian, Rizhao, Zaozhuang), and general potential cities (Jining, Heze). The insights gained from this study are essential for promoting the conservation of regional terrestrial ecosystems, directing land use policy development, and supporting sustainable development initiatives in Shandong Province.

Keywords: land use; carbon stocks; spatial and temporal variability; multi-circumstances forecasting; natural ecosystem (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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