Leveraging the GEV Model to Estimate Flood Due to Extreme Rainfall in Ungauged Dry Catchments of the Gobi Region

Myagmarsuren Bat-Erdene, Munkhtsetseg Zorigt (), Oyunbaatar Dambaravjaa, Dorjsuren Dechinlkhundev, Erdenesukh Sumiya and Michael Nones ()
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Myagmarsuren Bat-Erdene: Department of Geography, School of Art and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia
Munkhtsetseg Zorigt: Department of Geography, School of Art and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia
Oyunbaatar Dambaravjaa: Hydrological Research Division, The Information and Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment, Ulaanbaatar 15160, Mongolia
Dorjsuren Dechinlkhundev: Fresh Water Institute, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia
Erdenesukh Sumiya: Department of Geography, School of Art and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia
Michael Nones: Department of Hydrology and Hydrodynamics, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, 01-452 Warszawa, Poland

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-14

Abstract: Extreme high flows can have negative economic, social, and ecological effects and are expected to become more severe in many regions due to climate change. Knowledge of maximum flow regimes and estimation of extreme rainfall is important, especially in ungauged dry regions, for planning and infrastructure development. In this study, we propose a regional method for estimating extreme flow regimes and modeled extreme rainfall using the extreme value theory, with examples from the Gobi region of Mongolia. The first step is to apply the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory for the maximum rainfall data using 44-year observational data covering the period 1978–2022. Then, estimated rainfall with a 100-year return period is used for the empirical equation of the maximum flood calculation. As a result, most stations’ maximum rainfall follows a Fréchet distribution and 100-year return period rainfall values that range between 27.8–130.6 mm. The local reference value in the 100-year return period rainfall is defined as 90 mm for the whole Gobi region. Our results show that extremely high rainfall in the Gobi region has changed from −7% to 16%, leading to higher flood events. These findings further provide evidence for the maximum rainfall for flood calculation, climate change impact assessment, water resource planning, and management studies.

Keywords: extreme value theory; GEV; Gobi region; maximum flood; maximum rainfall; ungauged dry catchments (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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