Tsunami Risk Mapping and Sustainable Mitigation Strategies for Megathrust Earthquake Scenario in Pacitan Coastal Areas, Indonesia

Jumadi Jumadi (), Kuswaji Dwi Priyono, Choirul Amin, Aditya Saputra, Christopher Gomez, Kuok-Choy Lam, Arif Rohman, Nilanchal Patel, Farha Sattar, Muhammad Nawaz and Khusnul Setia Wardani
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Jumadi Jumadi: Faculty of Geography, Universitas Muhamamdiyah Surakarta, Surakarta 57261, Indonesia
Kuswaji Dwi Priyono: Faculty of Geography, Universitas Muhamamdiyah Surakarta, Surakarta 57261, Indonesia
Choirul Amin: Faculty of Geography, Universitas Muhamamdiyah Surakarta, Surakarta 57261, Indonesia
Aditya Saputra: Faculty of Geography, Universitas Muhamamdiyah Surakarta, Surakarta 57261, Indonesia
Christopher Gomez: Faculty of Maritime Sciences, Kobe University, Kobe 658-0022, Japan
Kuok-Choy Lam: Geography Program, Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi 43600, Selangor, Malaysia
Arif Rohman: Faculty of Infrastructure and Regional Technology, Institut Teknologi Sumatera (ITERA), Lampung Selatan, Lampung 35365, Indonesia
Nilanchal Patel: Department of Remote Sensing, Birla Institute of Technology Mesra, Mesra 835215, India
Farha Sattar: Faculty of Arts and Society, Charles Darwin University, Ellengowan Dr., Casuarina, NT 0810, Australia
Muhammad Nawaz: Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, 1 Arts Link, #03-11 Block AS3, Singapore 117570, Singapore
Khusnul Setia Wardani: Research Center for Hydrodynamics Technology, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Jl. Hidro Dinamika, Keputih, Kec. Sukolilo, Surabaya 60112, Indonesia

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-19

Abstract: The Pacitan Regency is at risk of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis due to the seismic gap along the southern region of Java Island, making risk-reduction efforts crucial. This research aims to analyse the tsunami risk associated with a potential megathrust earthquake scenario in Pacitan’s coastal areas and develop sustainable mitigation strategies. The research employs spatial analysis to evaluate the risk and subsequently formulate strategies for long-term mitigation. A weighted overlay method was utilised to integrate hazard (H) and vulnerability (V) datasets to produce a tsunami risk map (R). The hazard component was modelled using a tsunami propagation simulation based on the Shallow Water Equations in the Delft3D-Flow software, incorporating an earthquake scenario of Mw 8.8 and H-loss calculations in ArcGIS Pro 10.3. The vulnerability assessment was conducted by overlaying population density, land use, and building footprint from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) datasets. Finally, sustainable strategies were proposed to mitigate the tsunami risk effectively. The results show that Pacitan faces significant tsunami disaster risk, with tsunami waves at the coast reaching 16.6 m. Because the coast of Pacitan is densely populated, mitigation strategies are necessary, and in the present contribution, the authors developed holistic spatial planning, which prioritise the preservation and restoration of natural barriers, such as mangroves and coastal forests.

Keywords: tsunami risk modelling; tsunami risk assessment; coastal vulnerability; tsunami numerical model; tsunami sustainable mitigation; Pacitan coastal areas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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