An Uncertainty Analysis of Low-Impact Development Based on the Hydrological Process with Invariant Parameters and Equivalent Effects: Supporting Sustainable Urban Planning

Xinyi Shu, Chenlei Ye () and Zongxue Xu
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Xinyi Shu: College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Chenlei Ye: School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Zongxue Xu: College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-20

Abstract: Climate change and urbanization are increasingly threatening urban environments through pluvial flooding, prompting the widespread use of coupled hydrological–hydrodynamic models. These models provide accurate urban flood simulations and forecasting capabilities, and they can analyze the benefits of low-impact development stormwater control measures in surface-flooding processes. However, most studies have primarily focused on analyzing the stormwater control effects for specific flood events, lacking an analytical framework that accounts for uncertainty. This research proposes a framework for evaluating uncertainty in urban pluvial-flood stormwater control, combining urban-scale simulation, stormwater control modeling, and uncertainty analysis, while constructing nonlinear dependencies between the features reflecting the surface-flood-control benefits. Based on uncertainty analysis and copula methods, this research aims to support sustainable urban planning and provide a sustainable decision-making approach for urban stormwater management. The results show that the uncertainty assessment method based on generalized likelihood uncertainty is effective. By comparing the posterior joint distribution with the prior joint distribution, for different governance performance metrics, the joint, synergistic, conditional, and combined governance effects all exhibit consistent trends as the metrics change. The current research presents an innovative method for simulating and analyzing stormwater control benefits at the urban scale, providing valuable insights for urban sustainable development and flood mitigation strategies.

Keywords: urban pluvial flooding; physics-based; sustainable urban planning; low impact development; uncertainty analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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