Climate Change Drives the Adaptive Distribution of Arundinella setosa in China

Huayong Zhang (), Miao Zhou, Shijia Zhang, Zhongyu Wang and Zhao Liu
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Huayong Zhang: Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Miao Zhou: Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Shijia Zhang: Department of Biology, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Zhongyu Wang: Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Zhao Liu: Theoretical Ecology and Engineering Ecology Research Group, School of Life Sciences, Shandong University, Qingdao 250100, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-16

Abstract: Arundinella setosa Trin. is a widely distributed species in tropical and subtropical regions, and global climate change has an important impact on its adaptive distribution pattern. In this paper, we predicted the distribution of A. setosa in four climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) based on the adaptive distribution of the species and the optimized MaxEnt model under the current and future conditions. The results showed that the center of gravity of the adaptive distribution of A. setosa is located in Shaoyang City, Hunan Province, and the adaptive distribution is mainly located south of the Yangtze River, with the high, medium and low adaptive distribution areas accounting for 1%, 1.67% and 4.47% of the total land area of the country, respectively; the highly adaptive distribution of A. setosa is located in Yunnan Province and Jiangxi Province. Precipitation is the most significant factor affecting its distribution, followed by temperature, including Precipitation of Driest Quarter, Isothermality, Precipitation Seasonality, Min Temperature of Coldest Month, etc. In the future scenario, the center of gravity of the adaptive distribution for A. setosa shows a significant tendency to migrate northward. The total area of the adaptive distribution showed an overall expansion; however, the area of the adaptive distribution slightly contracted in the SSP5-8.5 (2050s), SSP1-2.6 (2070s) and SSP3-7.0 (2090s) scenarios. This study provides theoretical guidance and data support for ecosystem restoration and biodiversity conservation.

Keywords: climate change; Arundinella setosa Trin.; adaptive distribution; centroid migration; MaxEnt model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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