Research on the Impact of Carbon Emission Trading Policies on Urban Green Economic Efficiency—Based on Dual Macro and Micro Perspectives

Yuanhe Du, Wanlin Chen, Xujing Dai and Jia Li ()
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Yuanhe Du: School of Economics, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250300, China
Wanlin Chen: School of Business, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250300, China
Xujing Dai: School of Economics, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250300, China
Jia Li: School of Economics, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250300, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-39

Abstract: In the context of global climate change, carbon emission trading (CET) has become a critical tool for driving urban green economic transformation. Since 2011, China has launched CET pilot programs, supporting the achievement of the “dual carbon” goals. Studying the relationship between CET and urban green economic efficiency is essential for advancing urban green economic transitions. However, the existing research is limited by its single-perspective approach, insufficient exploration of mechanisms, and weak heterogeneity analysis, which restricts a comprehensivethe comprehensiveness of our understanding of policy effects. To address these gaps, this study is the first to integrate macro-regional data with micro-enterprise behavior, evaluating the impact of CET on urban green economic efficiency from a dual macro–micro perspective, thereby filling the research void in macro–micro data integration. At the macro level, this study employs panel data from 281 Chinese cities spanning 2007 to 2020, using fixed-effects and difference-in-differences (DID) models to assess the impact of CET on urban green economic efficiency. At the micro level, a game-theoretic pricing decision model is constructed to reveal behavioral differences among enterprises in complete and incomplete information markets and their indirect effects on green economic efficiency. The findings indicate that CET significantly enhances urban green economic efficiency, with technological innovation, green finance, and industrial structural upgrading serving as mediating mechanisms. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effects are more pronounced in eastern, non-resource-based, small-to-medium-sized, and non-old industrial cities. The game-theoretic model further demonstrates that enterprises in complete information markets more effectively indirectly enhance green economic efficiency through CET mechanisms. By combining macro and micro perspectives, this study provides a new theoretical framework and practical insights for understanding the policy effects of CET. However, limitations such as data confined to Chinese pilots and model simplifications remain. Future research should expand data dimensions, allowing researchers to more comprehensively evaluate policy outcomes.

Keywords: carbon emission trading policies; green economic efficiency; DID; evolutionary game (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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