Conversion Potential of Renewable Energy Surplus to Methane in China Based on Power Generation Forecasting

Bingchun Liu (), Xia Zhang, Yasen Zhou and Tiezhu Yuan
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Bingchun Liu: School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China
Xia Zhang: School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China
Yasen Zhou: Xinhua Electric Power Development Investment Co., Ltd., CNNC, Tianjin 300300, China
Tiezhu Yuan: China Energy Engineering Group Tianjin Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300171, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 7, 1-20

Abstract: With the substantial increase in the penetration rate of renewable energy, the challenges related to renewable energy electricity generation remain partially unaddressed. Enhancing the conversion of electrical energy to methane offers a crucial opportunity. This study established a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) multi-factor prediction model, which effectively forecasts China’s renewable energy generation from 2023 to 2060. The model demonstrated a high level of accuracy, with a low mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and a high coefficient of determination (R 2 value close to 1). The prediction outcomes indicate a significant growth in China’s renewable energy power generation by the end of the forecast period. Three potential scenarios were formulated based on the anticipated proportion of renewable energy within the power generation system in the target year. By integrating future projections of China’s social electricity consumption, this study analyzed the surplus electricity generated by major renewable energy sources and evaluated the potential for methane conversion under different scenarios. Additionally, the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed during the methane conversion process in each scenario was calculated. The results revealed that wind power exhibits the highest potential for methane conversion among the renewable energy sources considered. In terms of carbon dioxide absorption, wind power also leads, demonstrating a substantial capacity to sequester carbon during the conversion process. These findings provide a basis for government departments to assess the contribution of renewable energy to Sustainable Development Goals. Furthermore, the production of methane from surplus electricity not only enables the interconnection between the power system and the fuel system but also serves as an effective energy buffer for the electrical grid, enhancing its stability and resilience.

Keywords: renewable energy; power-to-gas; methane; electricity generation forecast; power generation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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