Impact of LULC in Coastal Cities on Terrestrial Carbon Storage and Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study of Liaoning Province

Yuan Li, Bin Xu, Yan Li and Yuxuan Wan ()
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Yuan Li: Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Bin Xu: Division of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Yan Li: Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Yuxuan Wan: Division of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 7, 1-24

Abstract: Context: The intensification of land use changes in coastal cities has been a result of the ongoing development of the social economy. A decrease in the ecosystem service value (ESV) and terrestrial carbon storage (TCS) of coastal cities has been observed as a result of the intensification of urbanization and climate change. However, it is unclear whether the influence of land use change on ESV and TCS in coastal towns would be facilitated or hampered under various growth scenarios. Aim: This study simulated the impact of land use change on the ESV and TCS of coastal cities under various future development scenarios and provided scientific policy references for the preservation of their ecological functions. Approaches: The InVEST model and PLUS model were employed to predict the land use changes in coastal cities in Liaoning Province from 2030 to 2060 under various development scenarios, based on the land use change data of three periods from 2000 to 2010 to 2020. The changes in ESV and TCS in coastal cities were also calculated. Results: The distribution pattern of ESV and TCS and future development scenarios are significantly influenced by the area changes and chief influencing factors of various land types in coastal cities of Liaoning Province. The dynamic changes in construction land, cultivated land, grassland, and unused land play a significant role in various development scenarios, given the variations in development patterns across different cities. Two of the primary factors that influence the variations in various land types are GDP, NDVI, DEM, rainfall, and population distribution. Three provisioning services, regulating services, supporting services, and cultural services, also experienced a gradual decline in the ESV variations of coastal cities, while the ESV of cultivated land, forest land, rivers, and grasslands exhibited a downward development trend. The spatial distribution of carbon storage in coastal cities exhibited the characteristics of “low coastal, high eastern, western, and inland forest distribution areas, and medium carbon storage in the central grassland distribution area.” Four coastal cities can effectively mitigate the impact of urbanization development on ecosystem services under the ecological protection scenario. Conclusions: The present study demonstrates the spatiotemporal variations and propelling forces of ecosystem services in coastal communities during land use change under various simulation scenarios. Important references for sustainable development and land use control in coastal cities are provided through recommendations for non-construction land management that enhance ESV and TCS.

Keywords: coastal cities; ecosystem service value; terrestrial carbon storage; InVEST model; PLUS model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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