Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Health Assessment in Chengdu Metropolitan Area Based on SD-PLUS-VORS Coupled Modeling

Jiancheng Yu, Shuting Guo, Shiyuan Wang and Yanyun Luo ()
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Jiancheng Yu: School of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
Shuting Guo: Zhengzhou Tourism Development and Investment Group Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450000, China
Shiyuan Wang: Guangdong Urban and Rural Planning and Design Institute Technology Group Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510290, China
Yanyun Luo: School of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 7, 1-23

Abstract: Human activities exert considerable influence on ecosystem health, a cornerstone for fostering sustainable regional growth, largely through their effects on land use transformations. This study integrates a system dynamics (SD) model with the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and the VORS (vigor–organization–resilience–ecosystem services) model to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/cover change (LUCC) and assess ecosystem health in the Chengdu Metropolitan Area (CMA) from 2020 to 2035. These projections were conducted under three distinct scenarios: the ecological protection scenario (EPS), the natural development scenario (NDS), and the economic development scenario (EDS). The findings indicate the following: (1) Under EPS, NDS, and EDS, both cultivated land and grassland areas decline, and construction land expands by 40.68%, 54.76%, and 75.01%, respectively. (2) Across all three scenarios, ecosystem health demonstrates improvement, and it shifts from “poor” to “moderate.” (3) Ecosystem health levels in the CMA demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity; they exhibit “low” levels in the central city, while generally stable levels are observed throughout the surrounding region. These results offer a strong scientific foundation for cultivating sustainable land management strategies and protecting ecosystem health in the CMA.

Keywords: SD-PLUS-VORS coupling model; ecosystem health; land use; Chengdu Metropolitan Area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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