Agent-Based Model Applied for the Study of Overtourism in an Urban Context

Janwar Moreno, Jairo Parada and David Daniel Peña-Miranda ()
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Janwar Moreno: Department of Economic, Universidad de Pamplona, Pamplona 543050, Colombia
Jairo Parada: Department of Economics, Universidad del Norte, Puerto Colombia 081007, Colombia
David Daniel Peña-Miranda: Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Universidad del Magdalena, Santa Marta 470004, Colombia

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 7, 1-26

Abstract: This research aims to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of residents and tourists in an urban context, assessing the risk of overtourism. To achieve this, a tourist city is conceptualized as a complex system and examined through an agent-based model (ABM), which simulates the interactions between heterogeneous agents and their environment. This computational approach enables the exploration of emergent spatial-temporal patterns and facilitates the interpretation of overtourism as a real-world experiment. The case study focuses on Santa Marta (Colombia), a well-established coastal destination currently facing potential entry into a phase of tourism decline if management remains reactive. Simulation results reveal a high risk of overtourism and illustrate the differentiated effects of two plausible management strategies at distinct spatial scales. Additionally, this study proposes a tourism intensity indicator, addressing the problem of overestimating tourism pressure in existing metrics. The proposed model offers a valuable decision-support tool for assessing impacts and designing proactive management measures in destinations experiencing rapid tourist growth across multiple spatial and temporal dimensions.

Keywords: overtourism; ABM model; urban destination; tourist floating population; tourist carrying capacity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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