The Arctic Permafrost Vulnerability Index

Justine Ramage (), Anna Vasilevskaya, Timothy Heleniak, Leneisja Jungsberg, Mateo Cordier, Elisa Stella, Sebastian Westermann and Joan Nymand Larsen
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Justine Ramage: Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden
Anna Vasilevskaya: Regional Center for Nordic Development, Nordregio, 111 86 Stockholm, Sweden
Timothy Heleniak: Regional Center for Nordic Development, Nordregio, 111 86 Stockholm, Sweden
Leneisja Jungsberg: Regional Center for Nordic Development, Nordregio, 111 86 Stockholm, Sweden
Mateo Cordier: “Cultures, Environments, Arctic, Representations, Climate Research Center” (CEARC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin, 78035 Saint-Quentin en Yvelines, France
Elisa Stella: Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Scientific Campus, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Via Torino, 155, 30172 Venice, Italy
Sebastian Westermann: Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, 0313 Oslo, Norway
Joan Nymand Larsen: Stefansson Arctic Institute, University of Akureyri, 600 Akureyri, Iceland

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 8, 1-16

Abstract: As permafrost thaw accelerates, Arctic communities living on permafrost face new challenges that require the development of local adaptation policies. Vulnerability assessments have not yet been applied in the context of permafrost thaw. We develop a conceptual framework to assess vulnerabilities related to permafrost thaw in the Arctic Circumpolar Permafrost Region (ACPR). The Arctic Permafrost Vulnerability Index (APVI) combines a set of physical and social indicators to reflect the levels of exposure to permafrost thaw and the adaptive capacities to respond in Arctic subregions. Using available indicators, we applied the APVI in 260 subregions on permafrost in the ACPR. Our results show that most subregions (97%, n = 253) are moderately vulnerable to permafrost thaw. This overall vulnerability score reflects large differences in the levels of exposure and adaptive capacities. While most subregions (67%, n = 174) had a high exposure to permafrost thaw, 75% (n = 194) had moderate adaptive capacities to adjust. Alarmingly, a quarter of the subregions (25%, n = 66) had low adaptive capacities to respond to permafrost thaw. The APVI remains conceptual as some limitations related to data quality, access, and availability apply. Thus, the interpretation of the vulnerability results should be evaluated with caution and put into local contexts.

Keywords: permafrost; vulnerability assessment; exposure to permafrost thaw; adaptive capacity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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