Distribution and Spatial Dependence of Sugar Energy Bioelectricity in the Brazilian Scenario

Edvaldo Pereira Santos Júnior, Felipe Firmino Diniz, Emmanuel Damilano Dutra, Vanessa Batista Schramm, Fernando Schramm, Rômulo Simões Cezar Menezes and Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior ()
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Edvaldo Pereira Santos Júnior: Center for Human and Agricultural Sciences, Paraíba State University (UEPB), Sousa 58804-725, PB, Brazil
Felipe Firmino Diniz: Graduate Program in Renewable Energy, Federal University of Paraíba (UFPB), Joao Pessoa 58051-900, PB, Brazil
Emmanuel Damilano Dutra: Research Group on Biomass Energy, Department of Nuclear Energy, Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife 50740-545, PE, Brazil
Vanessa Batista Schramm: Development of Systems for Supporting Sustainable Decisions (DeSiDeS), Federal University of Campina Grande (UFCG), Campina Grande 58429-900, PB, Brazil
Fernando Schramm: Development of Systems for Supporting Sustainable Decisions (DeSiDeS), Federal University of Campina Grande (UFCG), Campina Grande 58429-900, PB, Brazil
Rômulo Simões Cezar Menezes: Research Group on Biomass Energy, Department of Nuclear Energy, Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife 50740-545, PE, Brazil
Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior: Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba (UFPB), João Pessoa 58051-900, PB, Brazil

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 8, 1-15

Abstract: With increasing discussions about energy security and sustainable electricity generation, the supply of biomass resources, such as sugarcane energy, has become increasingly important for regional development. In this study, the impact of spatial dependence and distribution of the supply of sugar-energy bioelectricity in Brazil was examined using a spatial econometric model. Data from ANEEL’s Generation Information System were utilized to represent the Brazilian territory. Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) was employed as a method, with both bivariate and univariate correlations evaluated. In the scenario analysis, the results indicated a 133% increase in the number of sugarcane bagasse-based power plants in Brazil over the past twenty years (from 189 to 442 power plants), along with a 229% increase in GW potential (from 4.11 to 13.55 GW) over the same period. The results demonstrated that the Brazilian sector is expanding rapidly. Regarding spatial dependence, the results indicated that in Brazil, there is no clear correlation between electricity consumption and sugarcane supply, but the univariate analysis revealed that power availability is spatially connected, with the presence of high-supply clusters in the country. The spatial agglomerations showed an I Moran_Global of 0.543 for intermediate regions and 0.453 for immediate regions. Spatial agglomeration may have a positive effect on improving regional performance by reducing the challenges involved in site selection, licensing, and grid connection. Thus, this work contributes by analyzing the spatial distribution of supply, which can be useful for energy planning. Furthermore, spatial differences and disparities complicate the management and formulation of public policies aimed at regional energy development, requiring spatial methods that identify areas with similar characteristics, such as the one applied in this study.

Keywords: spatial agglomeration; energy transition; regional offer; econometric analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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