Accelerating Towards Sustainability: Policy and Technology Dynamic Assessments in China’s Road Transport Sector

Yao Yi, Z.Y. Sun (), Bi-An Fu (), Wen-Yu Tong and Rui-Song Huang
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Yao Yi: Hydrogen Energy Laboratory, School of Mechanical, Electronic and Control Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
Z.Y. Sun: Hydrogen Energy Laboratory, School of Mechanical, Electronic and Control Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
Bi-An Fu: Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, Beijing 100038, China
Wen-Yu Tong: Department of Statistics and Operations Research, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
Rui-Song Huang: Department of Energy and Power Engineering, School of Mechanical, Electronic and Control Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 8, 1-38

Abstract: This study examines the policy and technological dynamics shaping China’s road transport sector’s transition to low-carbon sustainability, focusing on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs). As the world’s second-largest carbon emitter, China faces significant challenges in reducing its fossil fuel dependency in road transport, which accounts for diverse emissions and energy security risks. The present work, using a dual tech multi-level perspective (DTMLP) framework integrating multi-level perspective (MLP) and an advocacy coalition framework (ACF), analyzes the interplay of landscape pressures (global carbon constraints), regime dynamics (policy–market interactions), and niche innovations (BEV/FCEV competition). The results reveal BEVs’ dominance in light-duty markets, achieving remarkable operational emission reductions but facing lifecycle carbon lock-ins from battery production and coal-dependent power grids. HFCEVs demonstrate potential for heavy-duty decarbonization but struggle with gray hydrogen reliance and infrastructure gaps. Policy evolution highlights shifting governance from subsidies to market-driven mechanisms, alongside regional disparities in implementation. This study proposes a three-phase roadmap: structural optimization (2025–2030), technological adaptation (2030–2045), and hydrogen–electric system integration (post-2045), emphasizing material innovation, renewable energy alignment, and multi-level governance. Our findings underscore the necessity of coordinated policy–technology synergies, grid decarbonization, and circular economy strategies, to overcome institutional inertia and achieve China’s ‘Dual Carbon’ targets. This work provides actionable insights for global sustainable transport transitions amid competing technological pathways and geopolitical resource constraints.

Keywords: China; low-carbon transportation; multilevel perspective analysis; battery vehicles; hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; policy coordination path (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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