Sustainable Shipping: Modeling Technological Pathways Toward Net-Zero Emissions in Maritime Transport (Part I)

Jean-David Caprace (), Crístofer Hood Marques, Luiz Felipe Assis, Andrea Lucchesi and Paula Carvalho Pereda ()
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Jean-David Caprace: Department of Ocean Engineering, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro 21941-611, Brazil
Crístofer Hood Marques: School of Engineering, Federal University of Rio Grande (FURG), Rio Grande 96203-900, Brazil
Luiz Felipe Assis: Department of Ocean Engineering, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro 21941-611, Brazil
Andrea Lucchesi: School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo 03828-000, Brazil
Paula Carvalho Pereda: Department of Economics, University of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo 05508-010, Brazil

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 8, 1-55

Abstract: Maritime transport accounts for approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a figure projected to rise by 17% by 2050 without effective mitigation measures. Achieving zero-emission shipping requires a comprehensive strategy that integrates regulatory frameworks, alternative fuels, and energy-saving technologies. However, existing studies often fail to provide an integrated analysis of regulatory constraints, economic incentives, and technological feasibility. This study bridges this gap by developing an integrated model tailored for international maritime transport, incorporating regulatory constraints, economic incentives, and technological feasibility into a unified framework. The model is developed using a predictive approach to assess decarbonization pathways for global shipping from 2018 to 2035. A multi-criterion decision analysis (MCDA) framework, coupled with techno-economic modeling, evaluates the cost-effectiveness, technology readiness, and adoption potential of alternative fuels, operational strategies, and market-based measures. The results indicate that technical and operational measures alone can reduce emissions by up to 44%, while market-based measures improve the diversity of sustainable fuel adoption. Biofuels, particularly BISVO and BIFAME, emerge as preferred alternatives due to cost-effectiveness, while green hydrogen, ammonia, and biomethanol remain unviable without additional policy support. A strict carbon levy increases transport costs by 46%, whereas flexible compliance mechanisms limit cost increases to 14–25%. The proposed approach provides a robust decision-support framework for policymakers and industry stakeholders, ensuring transparency in evaluating the trade-offs between emissions reductions and economic feasibility, thereby guiding future regulatory strategies.

Keywords: sustainable shipping; decarbonization pathways; alternative fuels; energy efficiency technologies; greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA); market-based measures (MBMs) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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