Using System Dynamics to Analyze Influencing Factors and Emission Reduction Potential of Geothermal Resources Development and Utilization in Tianjin

Ruoxi Yuan, Guiling Wang, Bowen Xu, Sumin Zhao, Xi Zhu (), Wei Zhang, Wenjing Lin and Honglei Shi
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Ruoxi Yuan: Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050061, China
Guiling Wang: Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050061, China
Bowen Xu: Tianjin Geothermal Exploration and Development Design Institute, Tianjin 300250, China
Sumin Zhao: Tianjin Geothermal Exploration and Development Design Institute, Tianjin 300250, China
Xi Zhu: Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050061, China
Wei Zhang: Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050061, China
Wenjing Lin: Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050061, China
Honglei Shi: Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050061, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 9, 1-23

Abstract: Geothermal resources are abundant in China and are distributed mainly in the eastern region where energy demand is high, especially in Tianjin. However, a significant disparity remains between the actual heating area and the potential heatable area of geothermal resources in Tianjin, which indicates the vast untapped potential for development and utilization in the region. In this study, we reviewed the history and current status of geothermal development in Tianjin. We further analyzed the factors affecting the development and utilization of geothermal heat in Tianjin. Subsequently, we constructed a system dynamics (SD) model of geothermal development and utilization in Tianjin. We developed four scenarios, including baseline, policy incentives, technological progress, and economic inputs. The results of the multiscenario forecasts and sensitivity analyses of the SD model showed the following: Tianjin will go through four stages of geothermal development and utilization in the future. Policy support and economic investment were the two main factors influencing the development of geothermal energy, and the influence of technological progress was comparatively smaller. Based on the above results, we proposed recommendations to promote sustainable development of geothermal energy in Tianjin according to three aspects: policy mechanism, economic investment, and technological progress.

Keywords: geothermal energy; system dynamics; development and utilization; policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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