Analyzing the Influence of Risk Perception on Commuters’ Travel Mode Choice in Heavy Rainfall: Evidence from Qingdao, China, Using the RGWRR Model

Siliang Luan, Xiaoxia Yang (), Wenqi Shu, Shuting Jia, Xianting Zheng and Fanyun Meng
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Siliang Luan: School of Civil Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, China
Xiaoxia Yang: School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, China
Wenqi Shu: School of Civil Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, China
Shuting Jia: School of Civil Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, China
Xianting Zheng: School of Civil Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, China
Fanyun Meng: School of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 9, 1-17

Abstract: Risk perception and travel behavior under extreme weather have attracted increasing scholarly attention due to their implications for sustainable transport. This study investigates how perceived risks influence commuters’ travel mode choices during heavy rainfall in Qingdao, China, using data from a pilot survey and a stated choice experiment. A Range-varying Generalized Weberian Regret–Rejoice Model (RGWRRM) is developed to capture nonlinear perceptual sensitivities and decision-making under uncertainty. Results indicate that safety and reliability risks significantly shape travel behavior, with commuters showing heightened loss aversion and increased willingness to pay for safer and more dependable modes. The RGWRRM outperforms traditional utility- and regret-based models, offering deeper behavioral insights. By elucidating the mechanisms linking risk perception to mode shifts, this study contributes to the design of resilient and sustainable urban transport strategies in the face of climate-induced disruptions.

Keywords: sustainable urban mobility; travel mode choice; risk perception; heavy rainfall; regret–rejoice models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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