When Energy Efficiency Backfires: Behavioral Rebound Effects Offset Carbon Savings in Mercantile Buildings

Oguzhan Ozyigit (), Gencay Coskun, Irfan Akyuz, Mehmet Emre Camlibel and Emrah Cengiz
Additional contact information
Oguzhan Ozyigit: Faculty of Political Sciences, Istanbul University, 34452 Fatih, Türkiye
Gencay Coskun: Faculty of Economics, Marmara University, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kulliyesi Aydinevler Mah. Uyanık C. No. 6, 34854 Maltepe, Türkiye
Irfan Akyuz: Faculty of Political Sciences, Istanbul University, 34452 Fatih, Türkiye
Mehmet Emre Camlibel: Department of Applied Research and Science, Vilnius Business College, Vilnius Campus, Saltoniskiu st. 2, LT 08126 Vilnius, Lithuania
Emrah Cengiz: Faculty of Political Sciences, Istanbul University, 34452 Fatih, Türkiye

Sustainability, 2026, vol. 18, issue 13, 1-31

Abstract: Raising indoor temperature setpoints is widely promoted as a practical way to reduce cooling-related energy demand in commercial buildings, yet its net carbon impact becomes uncertain once behavioral rebound effects are considered. This study develops an integrated carbon-accounting framework to evaluate the climate implications of summer indoor temperature increases of 1–3 °C in U.S. mercantile buildings. The framework combines operational energy savings from reduced cooling demand with consumption-driven emissions arising from longer customer dwell times and increased consumer spending under improved thermal comfort conditions. Carbon outcomes are quantified using sector-level electricity data and the USEEIO emission factor for retail trade. The results reveal a clear imbalance: operational carbon savings range from 0.21 to 0.64 Mt CO 2 , whereas consumption-driven emissions range from 3.37 to 21.90 Mt CO 2 , yielding a consistently positive net carbon impact of 3.16–21.26 Mt CO 2 across all scenarios. A break-even analysis indicates that only 1.30–3.89 billion USD in additional spending is sufficient to offset the operational savings. The findings remained robust across alternative behavioral and carbon-accounting specifications; a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo analysis produced positive net carbon impacts in every simulation (median 8.54 Mt CO 2 ; P(NCI > 0) = 1.00). Overall, the results suggest that temperature-based efficiency measures may overstate their climate benefits when behavioral responses are ignored, highlighting the importance of incorporating rebound effects into building energy assessments and commercial climate policy.

Keywords: energy efficiency; behavioral rebound effect; carbon accounting; mercantile buildings; thermal comfort; consumption-driven emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/18/13/6784/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/18/13/6784/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:18:y:2026:i:13:p:6784-:d:1982927

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Mr. Han Tan

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().