Exploring Future Impacts of Environmental Constraints on Human Development

Barry B. Hughes, Mohammod T. Irfan, Jonathan D. Moyer, Dale S. Rothman and José R. Solórzano
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Barry B. Hughes: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208, USA
Mohammod T. Irfan: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208, USA
Jonathan D. Moyer: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208, USA
Dale S. Rothman: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208, USA
José R. Solórzano: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208, USA

Sustainability, 2012, vol. 4, issue 5, 1-37

Abstract: Environmental constraints have always had, and will always have, important consequences for human development. They have sometimes contributed to, or even caused, the reversal of such development. The possibility that such constraints, including climate change, will grow significantly this century raises the concern that the very significant advances in human development across most of the world in recent decades will slow or even reverse. We use the International Futures (IFs) integrated forecasting system to explore three scenarios: a Base Case scenario, an Environmental Challenge scenario, and an Environmental Disaster scenario. Our purpose is to consider the impact of different aspects and levels of environmental constraint on the course of future human development. Using the Human Development Index (HDI) and its separate components as our key measures of development, we find that environmental constraints could indeed greatly slow progress and even, in disastrous conditions, begin to reverse it. Least developed countries are most vulnerable in relative terms, while middle-income countries can suffer the greatest absolute impact of constraints, and more developed countries are most resilient. Education’s advance is the aspect of development tapped by the HDI that is most likely to continue even in the face of tightening environmental constraints, and that is one reason why human development shows great momentum even in the face of environmental challenges.

Keywords: human development; international futures; environmental constraints; climate change; educational advance; scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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