The Impact of Climate, CO 2 and Population on Regional Food and Water Resources in the 2050s

Andrew J. Wiltshire, Gillian Kay, Jemma L. Gornall and Richard A. Betts
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Andrew J. Wiltshire: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK
Gillian Kay: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK
Jemma L. Gornall: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK
Richard A. Betts: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK

Sustainability, 2013, vol. 5, issue 5, 1-23

Abstract: Population growth and climate change are likely to impact upon food and water availability over the coming decades. In this study we use an ensemble of climate simulations to project the implications of both these drivers on regional changes in food and water. This study highlights the dominant effect of population growth on per capita resource allocation over climate induced changes in our model projections. We find a strong signal for crop yield reductions due to climate change by the 2050s in the absence of CO 2 fertilisation effects. However, when these additional processes are included this trend is reversed. The impacts of climate on water resources are more uncertain. Overall, we find reductions in the global population living in water stressed conditions due to the combined effects of climate and CO 2 . Africa is a key region where projected decreases in runoff and crop productivity from climate change alone are potentially reversed when CO 2 fertilisation effects are included, but this is highly uncertain. Plant physiological response to increasing atmospheric CO 2 is a major driver of the changes in crop productivity and water availability in this study; it is poorly constrained by observations and is thus a critical uncertainty.

Keywords: climate; carbon dioxide; CO 2 fertilisation; food security; water resources; population change; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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