Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China

Huiran Han, Chengfeng Yang and Jinping Song
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Huiran Han: School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, No. 19, Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian district, Beijing 100875, China
Chengfeng Yang: School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, No. 19, Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian district, Beijing 100875, China
Jinping Song: School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, No. 19, Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian district, Beijing 100875, China

Sustainability, 2015, vol. 7, issue 4, 1-20

Abstract: Land use and land cover (LULC) models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development) and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection). The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.

Keywords: LULC change; spatial pattern; CLUE-S model; Markov model; scenario simulation and prediction; Beijing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (50)

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