Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries

Davide Natalini, Aled Wynne Jones and Giangiacomo Bravo
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Davide Natalini: Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, East Road, Cambridge CB1-1PT, UK
Aled Wynne Jones: Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, East Road, Cambridge CB1-1PT, UK
Giangiacomo Bravo: Department of Social Studies, Linnaeus University, Universitetsplatsen 1, 35195Växjö, Sweden

Sustainability, 2015, vol. 7, issue 4, 1-26

Abstract: The impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to political leaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of) access to critical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead to violent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility indices to see whether they are good indicators of propensity to food riots. We found that the most accurate is the Political Instability and Absence of Violence Indicator of the Worldwide Governance Indicators by the World Bank. We compute a likelihood of experiencing a food riot for each quartile of this index. We found that the self-sufficiency of food does not seem to affect the likelihood of the occurrence of food riots, but that the level of political stability of a country does have a role. In addition, we identify a monthly and annual threshold for the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, above which food riots in fragile states are more likely to occur.

Keywords: food riots; national fragility; food price threshold; state weakness; political fragility; resource conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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