Predicting the Trend of Taiwan’s Electronic Paper Industry by an Effective Combined Grey Model

Ying-Fang Huang, Chia-Nan Wang, Hoang-Sa Dang and Shun-Te Lai
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Ying-Fang Huang: Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, No. 415, Chien Kung Road, Sanmin District, Kaohsiung City 80778, Taiwan
Chia-Nan Wang: Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, No. 415, Chien Kung Road, Sanmin District, Kaohsiung City 80778, Taiwan
Hoang-Sa Dang: Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, No. 415, Chien Kung Road, Sanmin District, Kaohsiung City 80778, Taiwan
Shun-Te Lai: Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, No. 415, Chien Kung Road, Sanmin District, Kaohsiung City 80778, Taiwan

Sustainability, 2015, vol. 7, issue 8, 1-20

Abstract: Electronic paper (e-paper) is a major sector of Taiwan’s Optoelectronic industry. It has paid much attention on the development of flexible displays. Even though the market is booming, the future is still unclear for business development. No research has yet forecasted the future market size of the e-paper industry. In addition, proposing an appropriate forecasting model to understand the trend of this industry plays a crucial role for market players and government’s authorities in formulating correct strategies. Therefore, in this paper, the future market size of Taiwan’s e-paper industry is predicted by an effective combined grey model. Two combinations of DGM(2,1) and Verhulst model with Fourier series and Markov chain, namely FM-Verhulst and FMDGM(2,1), were presented. Based on the annual data of Taiwan’s e-paper industry, the results show that the forecasting performances of two FM-Verhulst and FMDGM(2,1) models are highly accurate compared with other grey models. Precision is 96.36% and 97.77%, respectively. However, for long-term prediction, the FMDGM(2,1) model obtains the best performance in all proposed grey models. With obtained forecasting results in Taiwan’s e-paper industry by the FMDGM(2,1) model, it can be pointed out that the future market size of Taiwan’s e-paper would slowly increase in the next few years.

Keywords: forecasting; electronic paper; grey model; Fourier series; Markov chain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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