Predicting the Potential Distribution of Olea ferruginea in Pakistan incorporating Climate Change by Using Maxent Model

Uzma Ashraf, Hassan Ali, Muhammad Nawaz Chaudry, Irfan Ashraf, Adila Batool and Zafeer Saqib
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Uzma Ashraf: College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54590, Pakistan
Hassan Ali: Department of Zoology, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54590, Punjab Wildlife and Parks Department, Dera Ghazi Khan Region 32200, Pakistan
Muhammad Nawaz Chaudry: College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54590, Pakistan
Irfan Ashraf: College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54590, Pakistan
Adila Batool: Department of Space Science, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54590, Pakistan
Zafeer Saqib: Department of Environmental Science, International Islamic University, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan

Sustainability, 2016, vol. 8, issue 8, 1-11

Abstract: The potential distribution of Olea ferruginea was predicted by Maxent model for present and the upcoming hypothetical (2050) climatic scenario. O. ferruginea is an economically beneficial plant species. For predicting the potential distribution of O. ferruginea in Pakistan, Worldclim variables for current and future climatic change scenarios, digital elevation model (DEM) slope, and aspects with the occurrence point were used. Pearson correlation was used to reject highly correlated variables. A total of 219 sighting points were used in the Maxent modeling. The area under curve (AUC) value was higher than 0.98. The approach used in this study is considered useful in predicting the potential distribution of O. ferruginea species, and can be an effective tool in the conservation and restoration planning for human welfare. The results show that there is a significant impact under future bioclimatic scenarios on the potential distribution of O. ferruginea in Pakistan. There is a significant decrease in the overall distribution of O. ferruginea due to loss of habitats under current distribution range, but this will be compensated by gain of habitat at higher altitudes in the future climate change scenario (habitat shift). It is recommended that the areas predicted suitable for the O. ferruginea may be used for plantation of this species while the deforested land should be restored for human welfare.

Keywords: bioclimatic; climate change; habitat shift; Jackknife test; Maxent model; Olea ferruginea (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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