Effects of the Post-Olympics Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Beijing

Hua Ma and Guizhen He
Additional contact information
Hua Ma: State key laboratory of petroleum resources and prospecting, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China
Guizhen He: State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China

Sustainability, 2016, vol. 8, issue 9, 1-15

Abstract: To reduce congestion and air pollution, 20% driving restriction, a license plate-based traffic control measure, has been implemented in Beijing since October 2008. While the long-term impacts of this policy remain controversial, it is important to understand how and why the policy effects of driving restrictions change over time. In this paper, the short- and long-run effects of the 20% driving restrictions in Beijing and the key factors shaping the effects are analyzed using daily PM 10 pollution data. The results showed that in the short run, 20% driving restriction could effectively reduce ambient PM 10 levels. However, this positive effect rapidly faded away within a year due to long-term behavioral responses of residents. A modified 20% restriction, designed to replace the original 20% restriction system since April 2009, which is less stringent and provides more possibility for intertemporal driving substitution, has shown some positive influence on air quality over the long run comparing with that under the original policy design. Temporarily, the more stringent the driving restriction was, the better effects it would have on air quality. In the long-run, however, the policy was likely to cause a vicious circle, and more stringent policy might induce stronger negative incentives which would result in even worse policy effects. Lessons learned from study of the effects of driving restrictions in Beijing will help other major cities in China and abroad to use driving restrictions more prudently and effectively in the future. Decision-makers should carefully consider the pros and cons of a transport policy and conduct the ex-ante and ex-post evaluations on it.

Keywords: driving restriction; transport policy; environmental effect; air quality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/9/902/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/9/902/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:9:p:902-:d:77496

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().