Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence: Impacts on Flood Projections for the Mekong Delta’s Largest City

Hiroshi Takagi, Nguyen Danh Thao and Le Tuan Anh
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Hiroshi Takagi: Tokyo Institute of Technology, School of Environment and Society, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8550, Japan
Nguyen Danh Thao: Faculty of Civil Engineering, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology, 268 Ly Thuong Kiet St., Dist.10, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam
Le Tuan Anh: Tokyo Institute of Technology, School of Environment and Society, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8550, Japan

Sustainability, 2016, vol. 8, issue 9, 1-15

Abstract: The present paper demonstrates that inundation levels in the Mekong Delta’s largest city, Can Tho, are predominantly determined by ocean tides, sea-level rise, and land subsidence. Our analysis of inundation patterns projects that the duration of inundation at an important road in the city will continue to rise from the current total of 72 inundated days per year to 270 days by 2030 and 365 days by 2050. This is attributed to the combined influence of sea-level rise and land subsidence, which causes relative water level rises at a rate of 22.3 mm·yr −1 . People in the Mekong Delta have traditionally lived with floods, and thus there is certain resilience among residents in coping with small floods. At present, daily maximum inundation depth, which is generally shallower than 10 cm on the road, seems to be still manageable; however, our analysis indicates that this will start drastically increasing in the coming decades and reach an average depth of 70 cm by 2050. Effective and well-planned actions to mitigate the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise are urgently required, otherwise, local inhabitants will encounter an unmanageable increase in inundation depth and duration in the coming decades. This study, which considers both sea-level rise and land subsidence, suggests that inundation depth and duration are projected to rise much faster than those indicated by previous studies, which only consider sea-level rise.

Keywords: sea-level rise (SLR); land subsidence; Mekong Delta; flood; tide; river discharge (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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