Two Contrasting Scenarios for a Zero-Emission Future in a High-Consumption Society

Jin Xue, Hans Jakob Walnum, Carlo Aall and Petter Næss
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Jin Xue: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Akershus 1430, Norway
Hans Jakob Walnum: Western Norway Research Institute, Sogndal 6856, Norway
Carlo Aall: Western Norway Research Institute, Sogndal 6856, Norway
Petter Næss: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Akershus 1430, Norway

Sustainability, 2016, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-25

Abstract: The Paris agreement on climate took effect on 4 November 2016. The agreement plans on holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This paper compares an ecological modernisation (EM) development path with a degrowth development path, using urban and land-use planning impact on housing and transportation as cases. The two positions (EM and degrowth) agree on the need for a fundamental reduction in climate gases but disagree on which strategies should be pursued. EM transitions do not challenge the values associated with the capitalistic market economy and believe that policies, such as the right-price signals, should nudge producers and consumers in an environmentally benign direction. Conversely, degrowth rejects the EM belief in green growth, and holds that it will not be possible to decouple the economy from environmental loads to the necessary extent if the economy keeps growing. We conclude that we need a fundamental transformational change in society, i.e., a steering away from the growth ideology, and pursue policies that introduce maximum housing standards and limit mobility to succeed with the goals of the Paris agreement.

Keywords: ecological modernisation; ecological modernisation; degrowth; zero-emission society; scenario (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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