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Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China

Pengyan Zhang (), Jianjian He (), Xin Hong (), Wei Zhang (), Chengzhe Qin (), Bo Pang (), Yanyan Li () and Yu Liu ()
Additional contact information
Pengyan Zhang: College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475004, China
Jianjian He: College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475004, China
Xin Hong: Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH 42240, USA
Wei Zhang: State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China
Chengzhe Qin: School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, USA
Bo Pang: College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475004, China
Yanyan Li: College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475004, China

Sustainability, 2017, vol. 9, issue 12, 1-15

Abstract: Global warming has brought increased attention to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. Research on the driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption can provide a scientific basis for regional energy savings, as well as emissions reduction and sustainable development. Henan Province is a major agricultural province in China, and it is one of most populous provinces. Industrial development and population growth are the causes of carbon emissions. The STIRPAT model was conducted for analyzing carbon emissions and the driving factors for future carbon emission in Henan Province. The results show that: carbon emissions and energy consumption in Henan Province presented a rising trend from 1995 to 2014; Energy consumption due to population growth is the main contributor to carbon emissions in Henan Province. As every 1% increase in the population, GDP per-capita, energy intensity, and the level of urbanization development will contribute to the growth of emissions by 1.099, 0.193, 0.043, and 0.542%, respectively. The optimization of the industrial structure can reduce carbon emissions in Henan Province, as suggested by the results, when the tertiary sector increased by more than 1%, the total energy consumption of carbon emissions reduced by 1.297%. The future pattern of carbon emissions in Henan Province is predicted to increase initially and then follows by a decreasing trend, according to scenario analysis; and maintaining a low population growth rate, and a high growth rate of GDP per-capita and technical level is the best mode for social and economic development.

Keywords: carbon emissions; energy consumption; STIRPAT model; driving factors; scenario predictions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 O13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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