Study on the Evolution Mechanism and Development Forecasting of China’s Power Supply Structure Clean Development

Xiaohua Song, Xubei Zhang, Yun Long and Yiwei Guo
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Xiaohua Song: School of Economic and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Xubei Zhang: School of Economic and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Yun Long: School of Economic and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Yiwei Guo: School of Economic and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Sustainability, 2017, vol. 9, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: The clean development of China’s power supply structure has become a crucial strategic problem for the low-carbon, green development of Chinese society. Considering the subsistent developments of optimized allocation of energy resources and efficient utilization, the urgent need to solve environmental pollution, and the continuously promoted power market-oriented reform, further study of China’s power structure clean development has certain theoretical value. Based on the data analysis, this paper analyzes the key factors that influence the evolution process of the structure with the help of system dynamics theory and carries out comprehensive assessments after the construction of the structure evaluation system. Additionally, a forecasting model of the power supply structure development based on the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) has been put forward to forecast the future structure. Through the research of policy review and scenario analysis, the paths and directions of structure optimization are proposed. In this paper, the system dynamics, vector autoregressive model (VAR), policy mining, and scenario analysis methods are combined to systematically demonstrate the evolution of China’s power structure, and predict the future direction of development. This research may provide a methodological and practical reference for the analysis of China’s power supply structure optimization development and for theoretical studies.

Keywords: China’s power supply structure; clean development; evolutionary analysis; forecasting research; System Dynamics(SD); Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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