Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

Martina Grecequet, Jack DeWaard, Jessica J. Hellmann and Guy J. Abel
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Martina Grecequet: Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
Jack DeWaard: Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
Jessica J. Hellmann: Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
Guy J. Abel: Asian Demographic Research Institute, School of Sociology and Political Science, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China

Sustainability, 2017, vol. 9, issue 5, 1-10

Abstract: The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

Keywords: climate change; climate vulnerability; international migration; migration flows; life-supporting sectors; ecosystem services (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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