China’s Rare Earths Production Forecasting and Sustainable Development Policy Implications

Xibo Wang, Mingtao Yao, Jiashuo Li, Kexue Zhang, He Zhu and Minsi Zheng
Additional contact information
Xibo Wang: Institute of Software Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Mingtao Yao: Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 10038, China
Jiashuo Li: Department of New Energy Science and Engineering, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Kexue Zhang: Intelligent Control Technology Branch of China Coal Research Institute, Beijing 100013, China
He Zhu: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Minsi Zheng: Institute of Economics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Sustainability, 2017, vol. 9, issue 6, 1-14

Abstract: Because of their unique physical and chemical properties, Rare earth elements (REEs) perform important functions in our everyday lives, with use in a range of products. Recently, the study of China’s rare earth elements production has become a hot topic of worldwide interest, because of its dominant position in global rare earth elements supply, and an increasing demand for rare earth elements due to the constant use of rare earth elements in high-tech manufacturing industries. At the same time, as an exhaustible resource, the sustainable development of rare earth elements has received extensive attention. However, most of the study results are based on a qualitative analysis of rare earth elements distribution and production capacity, with few studies using quantitative modeling. To achieve reliable results with more factors being taken into consideration, this paper applies the generic multivariant system dynamics model to forecast China’s rare earth elements production trend and Hubbert peak, using Vensim software based on the Hubbert model. The results show that the peak of China’s rare earth elements production will appear by 2040, and that production will slowly decline afterwards. Based on the results, the paper proposes some policy recommendations for the sustainable development of China’s—and the world’s—rare earth elements market and rare earth-related industries.

Keywords: rare earths; sustainable development; production forecast; system dynamics model; policy recommendations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/6/1003/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/6/1003/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:6:p:1003-:d:101115

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().