The Low-Carbon Transition toward Sustainability of Regional Coal-Dominated Energy Consumption Structure: A Case of Hebei Province in China

Xunmin Ou, Zhiyi Yuan, Tianduo Peng, Zhenqing Sun and Sheng Zhou
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Xunmin Ou: Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Zhiyi Yuan: Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Tianduo Peng: Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Zhenqing Sun: School of Economics and Management, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin 300222, China
Sheng Zhou: Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Sustainability, 2017, vol. 9, issue 7, 1-26

Abstract: CO 2 emission resulted from fossil energy use is threatening human sustainability globally. This study focuses on the low-carbon transition of Hebei’s coal-dominated energy system by estimating its total end-use energy consumption, primary energy supply and resultant CO 2 emission up to 2030, by employing an energy demand analysis model based on setting of the economic growth rate, industrial structure, industry/sector energy consumption intensity, energy supply structure, and CO 2 emission factor. It is found that the total primary energy consumption in Hebei will be 471 and 431 million tons of coal equivalent (tce) in 2030 in our two defined scenarios (conventional development scenario and coordinated development scenario), which are 1.40 and 1.28 times of the level in 2015, respectively. The resultant full-chain CO 2 emission will be 1027 and 916 million tons in 2030 in the two scenarios, which are 1.24 and 1.10 times of the level in 2015, respectively. The full-chain CO 2 emission will peak in about 2025. It is found that the coal-dominated situation of energy structure and CO 2 emission increasing trend in Hebei can be changed in the future in the coordinated development scenario, in which Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area coordinated development strategy will be strengthened. The energy structure of Hebei can be optimised since the proportion of coal in total primary energy consumption can fall from around 80% in 2015 to below 30% in 2030 and the proportions of transferred electricity, natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy can increase rapidly. Some specific additional policy instruments are also suggested to support the low-carbon transition of energy system in Hebei under the framework of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, and with the support from the central government of China.

Keywords: low-carbon transition; regional energy demand; China; Hebei (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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