Slomads Rising: Structural Shifts in U.S. Airbnb Stay Lengths During and After the Pandemic (2019–2024)

Harrison Katz () and Erica Savage
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Harrison Katz: Data Science—Forecasting, Airbnb, 888 Brannan Street, San Francisco, CA 94103, USA
Erica Savage: Finance—Forecasting, Airbnb, 888 Brannan Street, San Francisco, CA 94103, USA

Tourism and Hospitality, 2025, vol. 6, issue 4, 1-16

Abstract: Background. Length of stay, operationalized here as nights per booking (NPB), is a first-order driver of yield, labor planning, and environmental pressure. The COVID-19 pandemic and the rise of long-stay remote workers (often labeled “slomads”, a slow-travel subset of digital nomads) plausibly altered stay-length distributions, yet national, booking-weighted evidence for the United States remains scarce. Purpose. This study quantifies COVID-19 pandemic-era and post-pandemic shifts in U.S. Airbnb stay lengths, and identifies whether higher averages reflect (i) more long stays or (ii) longer long stays. Methods. Using every U.S. Airbnb reservation created between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2024 (collapsed to booking-count weights), the analysis combines: weighted descriptive statistics; parametric density fitting (Gamma, log-normal, Poisson–lognormal); weighted negative-binomial regression with month effects; a two-part (logit + NB) model for ≥28-night stays; and a monthly SARIMA ( 0 , 1 , 1 ) ( 0 , 1 , 1 ) 12 with COVID-19 pandemic-phase indicators. Results. Mean NPB rose from 3.68 pre-COVID-19 to 4.36 during restrictions and then stabilized near 4.07 post-2021 (≈10% above 2019); the booking-weighted median shifted permanently from 2 to 3 nights. A two-parameter log-normal fits best by wide AIC/BIC margins, consistent with a heavy-tailed distribution. Negative-binomial estimates imply post-vaccine bookings are 6.5% shorter than restriction-era bookings, while pre-pandemic bookings are 16% shorter. In a two-part (threshold) model at 28 nights, the booking share of month-plus stays rose from 1.43% (pre) to 2.72% (restriction) and settled at 2.04% (post), whereas the conditional mean among long stays was in the mid-to-high 50 s (≈55–60 nights) and varied modestly across phases. Hence, a higher average NPB is driven primarily by a greater prevalence of month-plus bookings. A seasonal ARIMA model with pandemic-phase dummies improves fit over a dummy-free specification (likelihood-ratio = 8.39, df = 2, p = 0.015), indicating a structural level shift rather than higher-order dynamics. Contributions. The paper provides national-scale, booking-weighted evidence that U.S. short-term-rental stays became durably longer and more heavy-tailed after 2020, filling a gap in the tourism and revenue-management literature. Implications. Heavy-tailed pricing and inventory policies, and explicit regime indicators in forecasting, are recommended for practitioners; destination policy should reflect the larger month-plus segment.

Keywords: Airbnb; nights per booking; COVID-19; weighted statistics; negative-binomial regression; United States (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Z3 Z30 Z31 Z32 Z33 Z38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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