Modeling the Impact of Global Warming on Ecosystem Dynamics: A Compartmental Approach to Sustainability

Sinue A. Tovar-Ortiz, Pablo T. Rodriguez-Gonzalez () and Rigoberto Tovar-Gómez
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Sinue A. Tovar-Ortiz: TecNM/Instituto Tecnológico de Aguascalientes, Aguascalientes 20256, Mexico
Pablo T. Rodriguez-Gonzalez: TecNM/Instituto Tecnológico de Aguascalientes, Aguascalientes 20256, Mexico
Rigoberto Tovar-Gómez: TecNM/Instituto Tecnológico de Aguascalientes, Aguascalientes 20256, Mexico

World, 2024, vol. 5, issue 4, 1-24

Abstract: Environmental degradation driven by human activities has heightened the need for sustainable development strategies that balance economic growth with ecological preservation. This study uses a compartmental model approach to examine the effects of global warming on ecosystem dynamics, focusing on how rising temperatures alter interactions across trophic levels. Three case studies of varying complexity, including a human ecosystem incorporating social and economic factors, were analyzed by integrating feedback loops between greenhouse gas emissions, temperature anomalies, and ecosystem responses. The results quantitatively demonstrate that even minor disruptions in one part of an ecosystem can cause significant instability across trophic levels, potentially driving the system to collapse in a short period. These findings from all case studies highlight the cascading impacts of global warming, underscoring the intricate relationship between climate change and ecosystem stability. Furthermore, this study offers qualitative insights into the potential consequences of climate change on biodiversity and resource availability in real ecosystems, highlighting the vulnerability of such systems and the importance of incorporating feedback mechanisms into environmental policy and decision-making processes. The approach employed in this study offers a more robust framework for understanding ecosystem responses and for developing strategies to enhance resilience against climate change, thereby protecting the long-term sustainability of ecosystems.

Keywords: global warming; ecosystem dynamics; compartmental models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G15 G17 G18 L21 L22 L25 L26 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 R51 R52 R58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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