A Time Series Approach to Forecasting Financial Indicators in the Wholesale and Retail Trade

Sylvia Jenčová, Petra Vašaničová (), Martina Košíková and Marta Miškufová
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Sylvia Jenčová: Faculty of Management and Business, University of Prešov, 080 01 Prešov, Slovakia
Petra Vašaničová: Faculty of Management and Business, University of Prešov, 080 01 Prešov, Slovakia
Martina Košíková: Faculty of Management and Business, University of Prešov, 080 01 Prešov, Slovakia
Marta Miškufová: Faculty of Management and Business, University of Prešov, 080 01 Prešov, Slovakia

World, 2025, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-40

Abstract: Forecasting using historical time series data has become increasingly important in today’s world. This paper aims to assess the potential for stable positive development within the wholesale and retail trade sector (SK NACE Section G) and the operations of HORTI, Ltd.( Košice, Slovakia), a company within this industry (SK NACE 46.31—wholesale of fruit and vegetables) by predicting three financial indicators: costs, revenues, and earnings before taxes (EBT) (or earnings after taxes (EAT)). We analyze quarterly data from Q1 2009 to Q4 2023 taken from the sector and monthly data from January 2013 to December 2022 for HORTI, Ltd. Through time series analysis, we aim to identify the most suitable model for forecasting the trends in these financial indicators. The study demonstrates that simple legacy forecasting methods, such as exponential smoothing and Box–Jenkins methodology, are sufficient for accurately predicting financial indicators. These models were selected for their simplicity, interpretability, and efficiency in capturing stable trends, and seasonality, especially in sectors with relatively stable financial behavior. The results confirm that traditional Holt–Winters’ and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models can provide reliable forecasts without the need for more complex approaches. While advanced methods, such as GARCH or machine learning, could improve predictions in volatile conditions, the traditional models offer robust, interpretable results that support managerial decision-making. The findings can help managers estimate the financial health of the company and assess risks such as bankruptcy or insolvency, while also acknowledging the limitations of these models in predicting large shifts due to external factors or market disruptions.

Keywords: business development; financial indicators; forecasting; models; time series; Holt–Winters; Box–Jenkins; ARIMA; economic development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G15 G17 G18 L21 L22 L25 L26 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 R51 R52 R58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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