Investigating the Impact of Accessibility on Internal Migration Flows in Italy Through the Calibration of Multiple Linear Regression Models

Antonio Basile and Mariano Gallo ()
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Antonio Basile: Department of Engineering, University of Sannio, 82100 Benevento, Italy
Mariano Gallo: Department of Engineering, University of Sannio, 82100 Benevento, Italy

World, 2025, vol. 6, issue 2, 1-28

Abstract: This study estimates the impact of some socio-economic, real estate, and accessibility factors on the demographic change of the Italian provinces. Migration rates were analysed for one hundred and thirteen provincial capitals, or former provincial capitals, and their territories, and the correlation between them and various socio-economic and accessibility variables was studied. The data analysis showed significant heterogeneity between the different territorial areas of the country, highlighting the well-known phenomenon of migration from southern to northern regions. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether and to what extent accessibility variables have a direct influence on internal migration phenomena, in addition to the other socio-economic variables involved. Multiple linear regression models were specified and calibrated to correlate migration rates with various socio-economic and accessibility variables. The results show a non-negligible impact of certain accessibility variables on the migration phenomenon and suggest the need to work on the infrastructure front to rebalance the country’s demographic and socio-economic structure.

Keywords: accessibility; migration flows; regression models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G15 G17 G18 L21 L22 L25 L26 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 R51 R52 R58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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