 The Rise and Fall of Inflation in Italy in the 1990s: A Comparative Analysis of Four Different ExplanationsEugenio Gaiotti,
Andrea Gavosto and
Giuseppe Grande
Giornale degli Economisti, 1998, vol. 57, issue 3-4, 297-324 Abstract: The paper considers four explanations of the recent turnaround in inflation in Italy: the Exchange rate channel that was the centerpiece of the monetary policy strategy in the preceding decade; domestic aggregate demand; inflation expectations and “fiscal dominance,” that have both been a central issue in the recent debate on monetary policy effectiveness. The weight of each story is assessed by way of a vector auto-regression. The results suggest that inflation expectations did matter as determinants of actual inflation; in contrast, changes in the default premium on the public debt are not found to have had a significant effect on inflation, thus rejecting the assumption of “fiscal dominance”. The two episodes of sharp exchange rate depreciation (in 1992 and 1995) were a major factor in pushing prices up; however, the expectational climate and demand shocks also appear to have played an important role. Keywords: monetary policy transmission; inflation expectations; vector auto-regression (search for similar items in EconPapers) There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v57_n3-4_p297-324 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article More articles in Giornale degli Economisti from GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University via Sarfatti, 25 - 20136 Milano (Italy). |
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