The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts

Filippo Altissimo, Domenico J. Marchetti () and Gian Paolo Oneto
Additional contact information
Domenico J. Marchetti: Bank of Italy, Research Department
Gian Paolo Oneto: ISTAT

Giornale degli Economisti, 2000, vol. 59, issue 2, 147-220

Abstract: This paper analyses the business cycle properties of 183 time series relevant to the Italian economy. We propose new monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the Italian business cycle. On the methodological side, the study follows a schema for constructing cyclical indicators on a sound statistical basis, combining the use of traditional NBER methods with that of more recent techniques of cyclical analysis: A number of stylized facts of the Italian business cycle emerge. Among them, money and financial variables are found to lead the cycle, chronologically, by at least one year. US and UK cycles lead the Italian cycle by two to three quarters.

Keywords: business cycles; cyclical indicators; leading indicators; stylized facts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (33)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The Italian Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts (2000)
Working Paper: The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts (2000)
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