The Role of Forecasts in Social Security Policy

Daniele Franco and Maria Rosaria Marino
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Maria Rosaria Marino: Bank of Italy, Research Department

Giornale degli Economisti, 2002, vol. 61, issue 2, 215-265

Abstract: Long-term projections of pension expenditure are essential to evaluate the sustainability of social policies and potential reforms. The paper examines the main projections made in Italy and highlights the progress made and the problems remaining. It argues that forecasts played an important role in Italian pension policy, either postponing or enhancing reforms. The forecasts made in other European countries are also considered, as well as some significant revisions of the results of forecasting exercises. The paper emphasizes the importance of the attribution of responsibility and the frequency and transparency of projections. It argues that pension expenditure projections should be supplemented by estimates of the overall evolution of public finances and the economic situation of pensioners.

Keywords: pension expenditure; social security; projections; forecasting procedures; sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 H55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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