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The Transmission of the Global Financial Crisis to the Italian Economy

Michele Caivano, Lisa Rodano and Stefano Siviero ()

Giornale degli Economisti, 2011, vol. 70, issue 3, 1-32

Abstract: This paper carries out a counterfactual analysis of the Italian economy over the period 2008-2010, assuming that the global crisis hitting the economy never occurred. Under this circumstance, economic activity in Italy would have been higher by 6.5 percentage points at the end of 2010; crisis factors curtailed GDP growth by 10 percentage points, while economic policies mitigated the impact of crisis factors by 3.5 percentage points. Over three quarters of the impact of the crisis were “imported from abroad”; the worsening of domestic financing conditions and the deterioration of business and household climates played lesser ?though non negligible? roles.

Keywords: cyclical fluctuations; counterfactual simulations; financial crisis; Italian economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 E37 E65 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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