A Principal Component Approach to Measuring Investor Sentiment in Hong Kong

Terence Tai-Leung Chong, Bingqing Cao, Wing Keung Wong
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Terence Tai-Leung Chong, Bingqing Cao, Wing Keung Wong: The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Terence Tai Leung CHONG and Wing-Keung Wong

Journal of Management Sciences, 2017, vol. 4, issue 2, 237-247

Abstract: In light of the increasing integration between China and Hong Kong, this paper develops a new market sentiment index for the Hong Kong stock market, one of the largest stock market in the world. The components of the sentiment measure includes the turnover ratio, short-selling volume, money flow, HIBOR and return of the U.S. and Japanese markets. We also include the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite index in our measure to capture the influence of Chinese markets on the Hong Kong market. A threshold regression model using the sentiment index as a threshold variable is estimated to capture the state of the Hong Kong stock market. The result of \citeA{hansen2000sample} likelihood ratio test divides Hong Kong's stock market into three regimes. It is shown that when our sentiment index is above (below) the upper (lower) threshold, the HSI generally moves upward (downward). We also show that the trading rule which shorts (longs) the HSI or S\&P/HKEx LargeCapIndex when the sentiment index is above (below) the upper threshold value can beat the buy-and-hold strategy.

Keywords: Principal component analysis; market sentiment; CSI 300; threshold model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Working Paper: A Principal Component Approach to Measuring Investor Sentiment in Hong Kong (2017)
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