From Manufacturing Decline to the Rise of Consultancy:A Framework for Time-Consistent Industry Analysis in Portugal (1986-2018)

Ernesto Nieto-Carrillo ()
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Ernesto Nieto-Carrillo: University of Coimbra, CeBER, Faculty of Economics
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Ernesto Nieto Carrillo

Notas Económicas, 2024, issue 58, 7-36

Abstract: Since the creation of the Quadros de Pessoal (QP) in 1981, a longitudinal dataset of all Portuguese companies, four industry classifications have been used, hampering the ability to conduct long-term studies on firm dynamics and structural change. This paper proposes a framework for standardising the QP with time-consistent two-digit industry codes to analyse the impact of the ICT revolution on firm growth rates, net job creation, and employment composition across sectors. Our industry-consistent trends confirm the rise and fall of business dynamism and the contraction of manufacturing alongside the expansion of services. However, while the increased dispersion and positive skewness of growth rates and net job creation in ICT services played a crucial role, the technological paradigm shift in Portugal seems to be predominantly reflected in the vertical disintegration of firms and the subsequent substantial growth of administrative support activities.

Keywords: Structural change; deindustrialisation; firm dynamics; industry classification; longitudinal analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D22 L16 L25 L84 L86 O14 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gmf:journl:y:2024:i:58:p:7:36

DOI: 10.14195/2183-203X_58_1

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