Characterizing Supply-Side Drivers of Structural Change in the Construction of Economic Baseline Projections

Jean Chateau, Erwin Corong, Elisa Lanzi, Caitlyn Carrico, Jean Fouré and David Laborde Debucquet
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Jean Fouré

Journal of Global Economic Analysis, 2020, vol. 5, issue 1, 109-161

Abstract: A recent review of common modelling practices conducted during the Workshop �Shaping long-term baselines with Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models� held at OECD in January 2018 showed that models include different assumptions on changes to the production function along their dynamic baselines. These changes imply shifts in sectoral compositions for the projected economies (i.e. structural change). This paper reviews the assumptions made by 24 modeling teams about supply-side drivers of structural change: primary factor efficiency and changes in input-output structures of the production function over time. We critically review various methodologies, identifying state-of-the-art practices, and we propose simple guidelines, particularly focusing on consistency between data sources and models. The review highlights that most models take into account structural change to some extent. However, more effort is needed in modelling projected changes in input-output structures. Furthermore, this review is helpful for understanding the functioning of dynamic CGE models and in assisting dynamic CGE modelers in building their own baselines

Keywords: Computable general equilibrium models; Long-term economic projections; Structural change; Supply-side; Input-output (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.jgea.org/ojs/index.php/jgea/article/view/99/108 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gta:jnlgea:v:5:y:2020:i:1:p:109-161

DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.050104AF

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Global Economic Analysis from Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jeremy Douglas ().