Oil Windfall vs. Fuel Price Transmission: Nigeria's Post-Subsidy Resilience Test in a Volatile Global Market

Olaniyi Evans

Hequation Review, 2026, vol. 1, issue 1, 1-5

Abstract: Nigeria's removal of fuel subsidies on May 29, 2023, has delivered measurable fiscal gains, supporting the 2026 Budget of Consolidation and its increased capital expenditure allocation. However, the removal of the price buffer has exposed domestic consumers to global crude price movements in real time. This paper examines the structural mechanics of post-subsidy oil price transmission, the Dangote Refinery's partial but genuine role in reducing import dependence, and the policy tensions between reform credibility and household relief. The analysis identifies structural weaknesses in power, logistics, and FX intermediation that continue to limit the inclusive growth dividend of Nigeria's macroeconomic stabilisation programme, with implications for capital allocation.

Keywords: fuel subsidy reform; oil price transmission; fiscal consolidation; Dangote Refinery; Nigerian macroeconomic policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 H62 Q43 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:heq:heqrev:v1y2026i1a1

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