Disinflation, Naira Stability, and Debt Sustainability: Nigeria's 2026 Macro

Olaniyi Evans

Hequation Review, 2026, vol. 1, issue 1, 6-11

Abstract: Nigeria's macroeconomic position in 2026 reflects a convergence of meaningful reform gains and persistent structural vulnerabilities. Headline inflation moderated from 34.80% in December 2024 to 15.06% by February 2026 on the rebased CPI series, with a slight uptick to 15.38% in March. Gross external reserves reached a thirteen-year high of $50.45 billion. Total public debt stood at N159.28 trillion at end-2025, with a post-rebasing debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 39.4%. Debt-service obligations, however, continue to exceed federally retained revenue. We examine the structural drivers, institutional architecture, and capital allocation implications of Nigeria's current macro position.

Keywords: disinflation; naira stabilisation; debt sustainability; monetary policy transmission; fiscal consolidation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 E62 F31 H63 O55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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