The Immersive Economy After the Metaverse: Forecast Failure, the Wearables Turn, and Investment Policy

Olaniyi Evans

Hequation Review, 2026, vol. 3, issue 2, 8-15

Abstract: Between 2020 and 2023, leading consultancies projected that the metaverse and immersive technologies would add between US$1.5 trillion and US$5 trillion to global output within a decade. This article audits those forecasts against realized outcomes through 2025 using firm disclosures and device-shipment data. The headline value did not appear in the form predicted: capital losses compounded, the headset-gated virtual world stalled, and growth migrated to artificial-intelligence-enabled smart glasses and to open three-dimensional platforms reached through existing devices. The note explains the diffusion economics behind the overshoot, distinguishes genuine failures from genuine successes, and sets out where capital and policy attention should concentrate.

Keywords: immersive technologies; extended reality (XR); technology diffusion; smart glasses; capital allocation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 L63 L86 O33 O38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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