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The Keynes–Knight and the de Finetti–Savage's Approaches to Probability: An Economic Interpretation

Rogério Arthmar () and Michael Emmett Brady ()
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Michael Emmett Brady: California State University - Department of Operations Management

History of Economic Ideas, 2016, vol. 24, issue 1, 105-124

Abstract: The definition of ‘uncertainty’ proposed by Bruno de Finetti and Leonard J. Savage is significantly different from the one advanced by J. M. Keynes and Frank H. Knight. Recent studies seem to have overlooked this aspect of de Finetti and Savage’s 1962 paper "Sul Modo di Scegliere le Probabilità Iniziali". This particular work has been cited as supporting the claim that there are similarities between the de Finetti-Savage’s conception of uncertainty and the Keynes-Knight’s approach. This claim, however, loses much of its appeal once it is realized that the discussion by de Finetti and Savage involves only the initial probabilities.

Date: 2016
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Handle: RePEc:hid:journl:v:24:y:2016:1:6:p:105-124