Managerial Engagement with Scenario Planning: A Conceptual Consumption Approach

Abiodun Adegbile () and David Sarpong ()
Additional contact information
Abiodun Adegbile: European University Viadrina, Germany
David Sarpong: University of the West of England, UK

Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), 2015, vol. 9, issue 4, 73-80

Abstract: Scenario development is a widely used tool to reduce uncertainty while making decisions in high velocity environments. Nevertheless, many managers have a blinkered obsession with short-term performance objectives out of a fear of an unpredictable future, as well as a sheer inability to conceive of alternative futures generated in scenario planning exercises. Consequently, the latter have generated little value-added. The paper analyses the factors determining the willingness of decision makers to actively engage in processes of scenario planning. We suggest that effective incentives to promote interest in scenario planning can be found if we consider decision makers as ‘consumers’ of certain ideas, concepts, and expectations. In particular, we put forward the hypothesis that the selection of appropriate targets for scenario planning, a commitment to achieving them, expectations of positive outcomes, and increasing the frequency of scenario planning exercises are very likely to generate increased interest from managers and stakeholders in developing scenarios. Our results have been tested by means of an intuitive and logical approach to scenario planning. We believe that these findings can serve as a springboard for future empirical research that could test the proposed hypotheses by using other in demand methodologies, including probabilistic modified trends, competitive intelligence, and cross sectional effects analysis.

Keywords: strategic foresight; scenario planning; intuitive logics methodology; conceptual consumption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2015/12/23/1132793039/6-Sarpong-73-80.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hig:fsight:v:9:y:2015:i:4:p:73-80

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015) from National Research University Higher School of Economics
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Nataliya Gavrilicheva () and Mikhail Salazkin ().